The news of Kyrie being traded to the Dallas Mavericks had just hit my phone. My running/hooping group chat was blowing up with fervent discussion already and I was in the middle of a drive to go pick up my kiddos from my mom’s place where they had stayed for the weekend.
I was hungover to a degree that I wasn’t certain I could still pull off in my 30’s. The night before was phenomenally fun and my wife and I had galavanted across the city of Dallas paying a stiff premium to crash at The Adolphus and fully embracing the experience as we ended the night in the hotel bar, sipping whiskey and laughing while we tried to flip drink coasters off the table and deftly catching them in our hands. At 2:00am the bar closed. At 2:10 they finally pushed us out the door.
Suffice to say, my head was foggy when I first saw the news about the Mavs trading away Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 unprotected first round pick, and Two 2nd rounders from 2027 and 2029. A fairly robust amount of assets that were meaningful to the team. But in return? One, not-so-polished off the court, but undeniably fantastic on the court Kryie Irving to pair next to Luka for at least the rest of the season. My body had nothing left to give me in terms of dopamine or endorphins. I felt uncertain and still a bit queasy from the previous nights undertakings.
But in my mind I was already envisioning the obscene upside that such an all-star could provide in working side by side with one of the best players the league has ever seen in Luka. As I sifted through the ideas in my head, I began searching for any live podcasts that were in the midst of discussing this reality shaking news. I wasn’t coming across anything yet but did land on a pod with Brian Windhorst, Bontempts, and “Banned” MacMahon discussing the potential of the Mavs and/or Lakers pursuing Kyrie. Over the course of the next 24 hours from that point, I’d listen to Windy discussing the trade with Zach Lowe, Mavs Moneyball editor in chief Kirk Henderson discussing the trade with fans, and his co-host Josh Bowe. The many versions of the Ringer NBA podcasts discussing the trade on their platforms. And of course the tweets, the reddit discussion threads, etc. etc. etc.
There was no shortage of content being generated to discuss what had materialized in a mere 48-72 hours post Kyrie’s last minute trade request.
But in all that content, outside of the Mavs Moneyball podcasting team in Kirk and Josh, as well as the small pockets of Mavs fans in online forums, very little was being said by the national media in terms of taking this information in stride, and adjusting/projecting forward the chances of the Mavs now being a contender as a championship team, in this season. The only major adjustment that I could find for some time was the predictions site, fivethirtyeight adjusting Mavs chances drastically upwards for making the finals at 28% and giving them a solid 16% chance of winning it all. The chart provided on their site looks like some kind of crypto coin shooting to the moon.
But outside of that arbiration, most of the talk was about how frustrated Lebron would be in missing his chance to get Kyrie this season, what a great haul this was for the Nets in trying to secure Kevin’s run towards a finals in the 2023 season, and what an awful risk the Mavs were taking on in trading for the much maligned all-star.
I get it. Kyrie is one of those guys that people love to hate. Some of it is his fault, like sharing a movie online with his followers that has strongly anti-semetic views contained within. Then dragging his feet to apologize. Not to mention the numerous teams that he has burned on his way out anytime he decides it’s time to abandon ship (RIP Cavs, Celtics, Nets).
But as a fan of basketball and someone with a very selfish interest in seeing Luka climb the mountain just as Dirk did, to solidify his career with Dallas and receive that coveted Championship trophy, I can set all that noise to the side.
Kyrie is a player who every team secretly wants but are too afraid to admit it out loud. When he isn’t on your squad, it is all too easy to hate on him and throw shade at whatever team is providing him safe harbor. But now that player is on my team. And God damn it, I’m fucking pumped about it. Luka Doncic is light years ahead of the league. But even Batman needed a Robin. As it stands now, Luka Doncic is ranked first in 1st quarter scoring for the 2023 season. Guess who’s ranked first for 3rd quarter scoring? You may have guessed Kyrie. Nope, Luka again (albeit while tied with Giannis). And for 4th quarter scoring our newly acquired Eastern Conference All-star Starter, Kyrie Irving leads the field at 9.3 points averaged in the 4th.
If I’m taking a wild guess at who could have the potential to dominate deep into the playoffs and potentially go for the jugular with a finals visit and eventual championship in the 2023 season, I feel like it’s a safe bet that it’ll be the team with the players who can dominate each and every quarter of any given game.
We aren’t going to be given any credit for this move. There are many who say we overpaid. It’s not a perfect comparison but Donovan Mitchell is a player who was recently traded to the Cavs and as far as player production is concerned, they have similar numbers outside of the 4 year age gap between the two. I use Donovan because he represents where the market rate is currently for all-star players in their relative prime.
Donovan’s career averages stand at 24.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists per game on an eFG of 51.8%. In 2023, he has numbers of 26.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.9 assists on eFG of 56.5%.
Kyrie has career numbers of 23.3 points, 3.9 assists, and 5.7 assists on eFG of 53.4%. His 2023 season with only six less games played than Mitchell, stand at 27.1 points, 5.1 assists, and 5.3 rebounds on an eFG of 56.5%.
So while there are differences in their game/approach, from a statistical standpoint I believe it is safe to say that they are in the same comparable neighborhood. The biggest difference between the two is age (26 versus 30), playoff success, and years under contract. Donovan came to the Cavs with an additional 4 years under contract with the final year being a player option. Kyrie is currently eligble for a contract extension but if the Mavs and Kyrie cannot come to an agreement, he is free to walk at the end of the 2023 season.
Moreso than the age factor, that inability to know whether Kryie will be a Mav in 6 months or not, is a massive amount of risk that the Mavs are taking on. But perhaps that risk will be worth the gamble if it turns into a visit to the finals in this season when the Western Conference has no sure thing outside of the Denver Nuggets and the 2nd best in the West Grizzlies who are 2-8 in their last 10 and still reeling from an incident of some “he-said… he-may-have-pointed-a-weapon-with-a-red-laser-at-my-staff” between Ja Morant’s camp and the Indiana Pacers. But that’s another probe for another day.
The Cavs paid deeply for that contract security and youth. In sending out Donovan, the Jazz received Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkenan (who will now be representing the Jazz at his first All-Star appearance), 3 first round picks (2025, 2027, 2029) and 2 first round pick swaps (2026, 2028). It seems to me that Donovan was worth every penny paid as the Cavs find themselves at 4th place in the Eastern Conference sporting a strong 34-22 record.
In analyzing the cost of Mitchell for the Cavs, I believe it speaks to the cents on a dollar deal that the Mavericks got in taking on this Kyrie rental. Two 2nds, Two starting rotation players that are probably at peak value in terms of DFS and Spencer Dinwiddie, and an unprotected first round pick in 2029 when Luka may no longer be a Maverick. A quick aside on Dorian Finney-Smith; You will be dearly missed and it has been fantastic seeing you grow into the coveted 3-and-D Wing that many have stated Kevin Durant will be overjoyed to play alongside with. You always played your heart out. You never complained about your role. And you consistently got better, year after year after year. As far as Spencer Dinwiddie is concerned? Hope you enjoy your prodigal son tour in Brooklyn. Or would it be an inverse-prodigal-son tour since you didn’t technically have a choice in leaving? Google does say that the meaning of prodigal son is someone who spends their money in a reckless way which could be a characterization of your decision to convert your Nets contract into a crypto digital currency contract but that’s neither here nor there. It was a mistake for them to ever ship you off and I thoroughly enjoyed the highs and lows of your time as a Maverick.
To those coveting this pick that doesn’t materialize for 6 more years, I’d gently remind you that if Luka leaves the Mavs, it’ll be via trade, and we will receive the greatest haul ever generated from a singular trade in the existence of trade in the NBA, and perhaps in trade across all of existence in space and time and sports, forever and ever, Amen.
This is turning into a long winded way for me to get around to the eventual and intended purpose of this post -
Which is this: Luka and the Mavericks need to Embrace the Villain. Or more specifically, the Villain role or archetype. Our general theme for the rest of this season should be something along the lines of; “Fuck the haters, we about to eat”.
Miami did it when Lebron secured the super team and made the decision, earning a couple of championship wins and 4 finals visits in the process. The Bad Boy Pistons did it when they were beating the shit out of a young and quickly developing Michael Jordan and ended up winning 2 rings. Jimmy Butler embraced the villain role over a multi year period and it got him out of the frozen wasteland of Minnesota (that team can’t catch a break), onto a short stint with the Sixers where they were a single bounce from making the ECF, and finally onto a Miami team that took a pointed shot in the bubble finals before their inevitable collapse.
Kevin Durant embraced the villain when he joined forces with the Golden State Warriors, merely a season after he nearly made it past them with OKC in the 2016 Western Conference Finals. Secured himself 2 Chips and 2 Finals MVP’s in the process.
I’ll say it again: Kyrie is a man that people LOVE to hate. For my friends at Mavs Moneyball, he is going to be a content machine. But if our team can stay focused on why the NBA exists - To generate the best basketball that exists in our known Universe - then I think that we have a real shot at making a push to the Finals in 2023.
What does embracing the villain mean for Luka? I think it’s the same thing he’s already doing. Don’t be afraid to bark at the refs (his year over year free throw attempts are up 48%). Keep destroying the schemes of the teams that try and try to find new ways to attack you on defense but fail miserably (Luka’s 2nd in points and 1st in field goals made). Say you’ll go with Kyrie and opt for the Earth being flat (yes this actually happened long before they were teammates and it was hilarious). Focus on basketball and let all the doubters/haters/jealous types continue to throw rocks at the organization. None of the chatter will matter when Luka’s hoisting a Finals MVP trophy.
We’ve opened pandora’s box. But in doing so, perhaps will see a new side to this Mavericks team that will push us past last season’s ceiling of making the Western Conference Finals but only securing a single win, and onto the biggest stage in basketball. Only one thing is for certain, it’s going to be a helluva ride.